For the first time in quite some time, the Illinois Fighting Illini are soaking up the Florida sun in the college football postseason. But, Bret Bielema’s squad isn’t in the Sunshine State for sandy beaches and surfing, however, a long awaited business trip. The Illini are now just days away from facing SEC opponent Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, and the excitement level is high back here in chilly Central Illinois. The Illini Kickoff at 11 am vs the Bulldogs on ESPN 2 on January 2nd, and currently sit as -1 point underdogs according to ESPN.com.
The Bulldogs enter the ReliaQuest Bowl 8-4 on the season out of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). With some solid wins over bowl teams like Ole Miss, Arkansas, and non-conference Bowling Green, the Bulldogs are certainly capable of winning these kinds of big games. The Dogs thrilling win over the Ole Miss Rebels in the Egg Bowl was a great way to end the season and carry momentum forward on the field into this matchup vs the Illini.
Knowing the Enemy
The Biggest storyline surrounding MSU, is the fact that the Bulldogs are led by New Head Coach Zach Arnett. Arnett will step up in place of the late Mike Leach, who tragically was announced to have passed away on December 13th of a Heart Condition. Leach led a legacy that could never be forgotten by his family, his players, and the many millions of football fans who came to love Mike, and all that he did for the game of football. “The Pirate” as they called Leach, was beloved by Mississippi State fans, and you can only imagine that the Bulldogs are motivated to play in this game in a way few can probably describe. Arnett served as Defensive Coordinator under Leach from 2020-2022.
Mississippi State, under Arnett has developed a very solid defense, and is currently slotted as the 40th overall defense in the FBS. They are led by players like All-American Defensive Back Emmanuel Forbes, who was announced to be participating in Mondays game vs Illinois, which many fans in Starkville, Mississippi are very happy about. The Bulldogs run a very Unique system of defense utilizing a 3-3-5 to try and cause havoc in the secondary. The system is great in the sense that it can create confusion and turnovers, and with unique corner and linebacker blitzes that are key to the 3-3-5, it can cause quarterbacks to make bad decisions out of panic. If the Illini Offensive Line has trouble with blitz pickup, it could spell disaster for the Illini offense, who will have to rely more on the passing game and QB Tommy Devito, after Chayse Browns decision to not participate in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Limiting turnovers vs the Mississippi State defense will be key
The Bulldogs Offense are led by Junior quarterback Will Rogers, who is one of the better quarterbacks in all of college football, and man, does he have the stats to prove it. Over the course of the 2022 regular season, Rogers had 34 touchdowns (7th in the nation), 3,713 yards (8th in the nation), and only has 6 turnovers on the season. Even though Rogers is an “Air-Raid” offense quarterback, the low amount of turnovers and high TD rate is impressive, and if Illinois is not well prepared to stop the pass after losing All-American DB Devon Witherspoon, and First Team All-Big Ten Safety Sydney Brown, then it could be a long day coming for the Illini Defense and new DC Aaron Henry. Rogers of course isn’t the only part of the passing game that has impressed. The Mississippi State wide receiver room had 9 different pass catchers with 20 plus catches over the course of 2022. One factor that could be helpful for the Illini is that Rara Thomas, the Bulldogs leading WR entered his name into the transfer portal, and is not competing in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Overall, the MSU offense is very good, and currently sits as the 8th best passing offense in the nation. If Illinois allows the Mississippi State passing game to get hot, it’s gonna be trouble.
One of best way’s we can analyze the Illini’s chances of winning is to break down the overall schedule. How did this team get to 8-4? Don’t worry, we’ve got you! Mississippi States schedule breaks down as followed…
WINS: (non-conference 4-0) Memphis 49-23, Arizona 39-17, Bowling Green 45-14, East Tennessee State 56-7
(SEC Conference play 4-4) Texas A&M 42-24, Arkansas 40-17, Auburn 39-33, Ole Miss 24-22
Losses: LSU 31-16, Kentucky 27-17, Alabama 30-6, Georgia 45-19
Best Win: Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss. A nice defensive performance to hold a slipping game. Quarterback Will Rodgers rallied the Bulldog Offense from down 16-7 to give them a 24-16 lead over the Rebels. Ole Miss then drove the field and tried to tie the game with a 2-point conversion, but the Dogs Defense held, giving them their best win of the 2022 season.
Keys to Winning for the Illini
Secondary Play
The Illini defense will be without two of its best starters on monday with the absence of Devon Witherspoon, and Sydney Brown both deciding to opt-out of the ReliaQuest Bowl in preparation for the NFL Draft. Taz Nicholson and Matthew Bailey stepping up and playing productive football for the Illini Defense is going to be critical to winning. Both have stepped up, played big minutes, and made big plays for this team before, and it will be needed on Monday, now more than ever.
Who steps up for All-American RB Chayse Brown?
Lets hope Josh McCray. Following his early season injury, the massive running back has not seen much playing time as he slowly tried tp get himself to 100% health. Head Coach Bret Bielema says that Josh is now fully back and ready to roll for the Illini offense, and if so, he could make a big name for himself stepping up in the ReliaQuest Bowl to help carry the Illini to victory.
Settle from coaching turnover
Defensive Coordinator Ryan Walters, RB’s coach Corey Patterson and LB’s coach Kevin Kane have all departed from the program following Walters hiring as the next Head Coach at Purdue. With coaching turnover, there can be some unstable chaos that can occur to a team that, if not controlled, can quickly spell disaster for a team. The fact that 23′ recruits didn’t jump ship left and right, and current players didn’t do the same in the portal, shows that this situation has been controlled by coach Bielema well. Henry is in Place as DC, and a new safeties coach will be brought into the program within the next 24 hours according to Bret Bielema. Hopefully, we wont see this take much effect over the Illini during the game.
Illini Now Kirks Prediction
With Illinois missing their star Running Back in Chayse Brown, and star secondary players Sydney Brown and Devon Witherspoon it takes a lot for me to pick the Illini in this game. However, Mississippi State has had to make a massive transition with Zach Arnett stepping up as a first time Head Coach to try to lead MSU to victory. Of course he is more than capable of doing so, and doing it well. However, with such a quick turnover, in such a tough situation, I can only imagine how difficult that could be. I also believe Illinois Defense still has enough fire power with Keith Randolph and Johnny Newton to get after Will Rogers and force him to make bad decisions. Stop the running game, limit the big plays over the top, and Illinois has a great chance. I also love the thought of a fully healthy 6’2 Josh McCray running at a 3-3-5 defense that has let teams with good backs run wild. I see Illinois offensive Line causing issues for the Dogs defensive front, and having a good day in the running game.
Prediction: Illini 31 Mississippi State 28
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