Brad Underwood and his number #16 ranked Fighting Illini are 8-3 coming off of a 68-47 win over Alabama A&M and are headed to St.Louis for “Braggin Rights” vs bordering rival Mizzou. The two teams are set to tip off at 8pm on the SEC network in front of what will be a packed Enterprise Center. The Illini secured this game last year with an 88-63 win, and lead the all-time series 33-19.
The Missouri Tigers are led by first year Head Coach Dennis Gates, and are 10-1 on the year thus far. A nice start to the young 22-23 season for the Tigers. Of course like any new coach, growing pains are very much the name of the game, and that 10-1 for the Tigers has not at all come easy. When reviewing over the tigers 10 wins, you can certainly see how one would question the quality of Missouri’s schedule.
The highest quality opponent Mizzou has faced by far this season is the Kansas Jayhawks, and Bill Self’s squad put it on the Tigers with a 95-67 beatdown in Columbia. Not the kind of loss you want to have at home to another heated border rival, especially when you are trying to prove yourself. However, the Jayhawks are the #6 team in the nation, and an incredibly athletic shooting team, that is good enough to win it all. I wouldn’t put too much stock into a loss that in my opinion, is just bound to happen at some point under any new staff facing a top 10 team.
The Tigers are coming off of their best win over the University of Central Florida by pulling off a Deandre Gholston buzzer beater by that gave the Tigers a 68-66 go-ahead over the Knights. Not the best or the cleanest win the program has seen, but a nice, solid foundation for Dennis Gates to build on. On flip side however, the Tigers other 9 wins, you could say, are a bit questionable. With wins over SIUE, SE. Missouri State, So. Indiana, Penn, Lindenwood, Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Houston Christian and Wichita State, its definite to say the Illini will have a strong advantage in strength of schedule.
The Tigers do have some really good young players to keep an eye on, and fans shouldn’t be shocked if they give the Illini trouble, especially in the first half. D’Moi Hodge has been an extremely productive member of this unit leading all Tigers scorers with a 16.6 PPG average. Hodge is about a 52% shooter, and when he gets on a roll and he can really light it up and give defenses problems. Kobe Brown, a 6’8 guard leads the team in rebounds with about 6 per game and can be a nightmare matchup with his length and athleticism. Illinois is lucky to also be a team that is of no shortage of length, and defensive matchup nightmares. Players like Coleman Hawkins and Matt Mayer will be key in what Brown’s success vs the Illini looks like, but if they are not on their “A game”, Kobe could cause lot of problems.
Kirk’s Keys to Winning for the Illini
With who Illinois has faced so far in terms of schedule, you can easily chalk up strength of schedule to the Illini. The problem is, Illinois has not particularly performed at the top of their potential during December. Of course, Illinois is still one of the best teams in all of college basketball, but there have been snags. The Illini are 2-2 during december with losses to Maryland and Penn State, and a lackluster win over Alabama A&M where. The Illini do, of course, have a win over the #2 ranked Texas Longhorns at Madison Square Gardens here in December, which was a game where Illinois showed its fans how high the ceiling can be for this squad. When the big lights come on, and the energy/leadership is there, the Illini can really play with anyone in the nation. With a big stage set for Thursday’s matchup, you can hope Illinois will be ready.
Underwood in his post game presser after the Penn State loss asked for someone to step up, and be a leader. Baylor Transfer Matt Mayer has certainly seen an uptick, and answered the call vs Alabama A&M. Mayer led all starters in rebounds with 7, and led all scorers with 21. Mayer was the man to step up when play got sloppy in the early second half and was able to guide Illinois out of having its large lead cut down to only 3. With a high energy “And 1” foul, and some tough finishes around the rim, the Illini were able to once again pull away and snag a 21 point win.
Terrance Shannon Jr. is Illinois leading scorer averaging 17.8 ppg and will be a major key in the outcome of this game. Shannon has been an extremely solid player all year and I would expect him to play well on such a big stage. Shannon is a very strong, and tough player and in such a high intensity, heated rivalry, you will need all the grit you can get. Expect him to have a big game vs the Tigers, and a great matchup for platers like D’Moi Hodge and the Brown brothers, Kobe and Kaleb.
Skyy Clark, the young freshman PG, will need to step up in a big way vs Mizzou as a distributor, and ensure as few turnovers as physically possible from your point. Illinois has struggled in particular this season turning the ball over, and Skyy has been on the front end of more than a few of those. Totally expected and typical behavior for an 18 year old freshman who is stepping into a Big Ten environment for the first time, but you have to limit them. The “Braggin Rights” game has been a turnover nightmare for the Illini the last couple of outings, and limiting the fixable mistakes can be difference in a dominant win versus a loss for the Illini thursday. One particular positive that has come out of December for Illinois is that Clark has been much more productive, and has cut down on some of the freshman mistakes. If he can be solid vs Mizzou, Illinois will be in good shape.
Kirks Prediction
Though the 10-1 Tigers are riding high coming off of a buzzer beater vs UCF, the Illini’s tough schedule to date will be a big factor in this game, and who is more prepared for that “Big Lights Shock.” This will be a major advantage for the Illini in a rivalry game that has a lot of beef and history. I believe that the Illini’s abundance of length and athleticism will be too much for the Tigers, and an older, more experienced unit will eventually take over. Look for the halftime score to be a nail biter, with the Illini wearing on the Tigers in the 2nd half.
Prediction: Illini 78 – Mizzou 65
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