The Michigan State Spartans limp into Champaign 3-5 overall, and 1-4 in Big Ten play under 2nd year Head Coach Mel Tucker. Tucker came out of the gates hot in 2021 as first year Head Coach with an 11-2 record overall, capped off by a 31-21 win over Pitt in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.
Unfortunately for Sparty, the tides have turned in 2022, and after a slew of injuries and suspensions, the circumstance is really looking favorable for the Illini. The matchup takes Place in Champaign Saturday at 2:30 pm CT on BTN, and Now 100.7 will begin coverage at 1:30 pm CT.
Last Saturdays matchup between the Spartans and the Michigan Wolverine’s finished off in private after a large fight followed the Michigan State 29-7 loss. A large group of MSU players were involved in a fight with a Michigan player that was caught on camera, and has left 8 players suspended indefinitely from the MSU team. Of those 8, 3 defensive starters were caught in the mix, including the nations leader in forced fumbles, Jacoby Windmon. This will be a major setback for the Spartans who already were struggling on the Defensive side of the ball. Michigan State rank 109th in the nation in total defense, and missing your star player, along with 2 other starters isn’t gong to bode well for the Spartans. I would expect the Illinois Offense to run the ball excessively with the defensive status of MSU, plus the 30 mph winds that won’t be much help either. I’d expect a heavy dose of Chase Brown, and a finally healthy Josh McCray.
Offensively, the Spartans have really struggled up front on the Offensive Line, which has been a thorn in their side. Last week versus the Wolverines, the Spartans only averaged 1.6 yards per carry, which will be even harder to get this week vs the #1 nationally ranked Illini Defense. Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph will be extremely important to which way this game will go. If the law firm has the kind of day, they are expected to have, I would expect Illinois to win this game with handily. If not, however, it could give the Spartans some momentum to move the ball and establish some rhythm, which has not been the case in Big Ten play. Sophomore Wide Receiver Keon Coleman has been the star of the Michigan State squad on offense, and put up 155 yards and a TD on 5 receptions vs the Wolverines. He is a big play maker, that seems to be the only big threat to Illinois defense. Shut Coleman down, and again, I think the Illini pull away with a big win.
Keys to Winning
Do what you do best. Run the ball well vs a broken down defense that is hurting for star power. This is your bread and butter and kind of a “duh” moment, but no need to get fancy if you are offensive coordinator, Barry, Lunny Jr. I think they will stick to what got them here, and have a huge day rushing the ball.
Linebacker Play. If Newton and Randolph continue to play the way they have as an interior unit, they are going to find themselves in QB Payton Thorne’s territory a lot. This is great, but they will have to be careful of not over pursuing in the linebacker core and allowing plays like draws to become 30+ yard plays that hurt. Not that this would lose you the game necessarily, but giving a struggling team with nothing to lose some juice to beat you in your house can be a recipe for disaster.
Home Field Advantage. Yes, it’s gong to be a wet, windy day in Champaign Illinois, but the Illinois Athletics Department has hinted several times that ticket sales are nearing a sellout, and it could very well be before it’s all said and done. This team has not had 60,000+ in Memorial to watch a good team in a very long time, and neither have these fans. This has been a building moment it seem for a long time, and if it’s a mad house in Memorial, it’s gonna be a long day for ol’ Sparty.
Illini Now Kirkland’s Prediction
I believe the Illini are gong to have a fun day in the rain Saturday, and walk away with big win over a tattered Michigan State team. I’d say the Illini will hit the over on the 16 point spread, and walk away with a 38-13 win over the Spartans.
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