It’s week 5 for Illinois and Head Coach Bret Bielema, as his 3-1 Fighting Illini are headed to Madison for an 11 am showdown in Camp Randall. The game will be available to watch on the Big Ten network, however you can listen right here in Bloomington at NOW 100.7 FM, as we begin our 10 AM coverage of Bret Bielema’s return to Madison.
This game comes at high stakes for the fighting Illini, as they continue their hunt for a bowl season in Champaign, Illinois. Of course most of the storylines will circulate around the fact that this will be Bret Bielema‘s first return to Madison as Illinois head coach, after having spent 6 years as the Badgers head coach, leading them to 3 straight Rose Bowl appearances. This of course was followed by his departure to Arkansas, which was very much controversial at the time.
Illinois however, has a much different storyline in their heads. As a current 7 point underdog according to ESPN.com, the Fighting Illini hope they can go into Madison, and get a big upset win for themselves, to push their record ever so closer to lucky bowl number 6. A huge confident boosting win also sets themselves up nicely for a 6:30 pm home game under the lights in Champaign, against a questionably struggling Iowa squad. The million-dollar question is, how can they do it?
Knowing the Enemy
To set the stage a little bit for this game, Illinois currently sits as the underdog, but I would say in terms of which team feels better about this game, I don’t know that Badger Nation is entirely comfortable.
Wisconsin football is always an anomaly to many, for the fact that they are truthfully like a machine. What do I mean by this? They always check the right boxes to keep themselves consistently good. Not always great, but consistently good. Paul Chryst has led his Badgers to a 67-25 record overall, with double digit wins in 5 seasons. Chryst was a staffer for Bielema, who was promoted to Head Coach after Bret Bielema’s departure to Arkansas.
Typically, you can always rely on Wisconsin’s offense being very consistent, especially at running the ball, and dominating you up front at the Offensive Line, however, thus far, the Wisconsin offense has started to get some heads scratching in the cheese head state after a shaky 2-2 start to the season. Former 4- star recruit Graham Mertz is a good ball player but has not quite lived up to the next legend status he was hoped to be in Madison. So far, he has 17 touchdowns on 18 interceptions in his career vs Big Ten opponents. That’s an eye-popping stat, especially for Illinois fans who are currently very confident in their defense. Thus far this season, Mertz is 55-82 with a 55% completion percentage with 791 yards of total offense, paired with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. It’s not a terrible performance, but not quite the play needed for this Wisconsin team to stranglehold themselves as a shoe in to win the Big Ten West. Part of the issue Mertz has had, which is a weird problem for Wisconsin, is what the Offensive Line has been inconsistent, for a number of factors. After last season, Wisconsin moved on from longtime Line coach Joe Rudolph, and replaced him with former linebackers coach Bob Bostad, who is now on his second run with the Wischy Offensive Line. Of course, it takes a long time to build a culture and for a unit to form under a new coach to work as one. Especially when you have had the injuries Wisconsin has suffered to this unit. Currently, Wisconsin is playing without it’s starting offensive tackles, and this has reflected over its losses to Washington State and Ohio State. Right Guard Tanner Bortolini has had an on and off injury that has held him out of multiple games from an injury he suffered in camp. As you can see, between a new coach, and a lot of Injuries/ shuffling, it can be hard for a 5-man unit to be in unison. TE Clay Cundiff suffered a lower extremity injury to his leg vs Ohio State, that will hold him out indefinitely, which is a big deal to a team like Wisconsin that plays a lot of offense through its big man receivers. This, coming off a year where you lose a 4-year TE like Jake Ferguson. This leaves the room in a tough position and will likely force Wisconsin to play an inexperienced TE, who will need to carry a big load for this offense, which is a big ask in Big Ten West matchups, especially a Ryan Walters defense. Sophomore Running Back Braelon Allen, a massive RB at 6’2 and 240 lbs, is the star of this offense, and Wisconsins Key to beating Illinois, who is pretty confident at locking down the passing attack and forcing you to run. Allen currently has 473 yards on 73 Carries, along with 6 touchdowns to boot. He will be a handful for Keith Randolph and Illinois front 7, which is a nice test for Illinois DC Ryan Walters.
Jim Leonard, Long time Wisconsin defensive coordinator, and surely soon to be future head coach has been the bright spot of this team until giving up 52 points to Ohio State on Saturday. Until that point, Wisconsin had only allowed 24 points in their first 3 matchups. However, the Badger Defense only returns 3 of its 11 starters from the prior season, so the question is, can this young team respond to Jim Leonard quickly enough after getting mauled only a short week ago? The other question is, will this defense be able to slow down Illinois passing attack that has gained a lot of steam over the course of the last 2 games. Wisconsins young DBs had a tough time vs the Buckeyes, and you can bet the Illini will try to cash in on the same.
Keys to Winning
Continued offensive consistency. Illinois running back Chase Brown has been an absolute stud through the first four weeks of the season. If this can continue through this game, it’s going to be really tough for Wisconsin to stop Illinois defensively. This, because Illinois passing game has greatly started to gain steam and will look to be utilized this Saturday. Of course, you are asking for the best of both worlds, but balance is so important to being a good offense, especially in the BIG TEN. So, if you want to win, Chayse will have to do his thing, and Isaiah Williams, Pat Bryant, Casey Washington, and others will have to be heavily involved.
Tommy Time. Quarterback Tommy Devito is the kind of guy who has a lot of swagger about him, and does not mind being outside of the box. Tommy wants to be different from the other quarterbacks Illinois has had recently, and with his play so far, he fits the part. However, for him to do that, he will have to make his mark by winning some big game’s and continuing offensive consistency. With a big game in Camp Randall, and an upcoming home game against a struggling Iowa next week, what an opportunity to go get for Devito.
Ryan Walters doing what he does. Thus far, Ryan Walters has done a fantastic job of exposing the issues Illinois opponents have faced. With lots of shifts and pressure, Walters does a great job of putting pressure on quarterbacks, creating turnovers. He’s also good at making an Offensive line wear down, to allow Johnny Newton, Keith Randolph, Gabe Jacas, and Seth Coleman to wreak havoc. It’s obvious to say if your defense can dominate, your team can beat anybody, but the truth is, if Braelon Allen can be contained, and you confident Mertz won’t shred you in the air, you can be confident that Illinois can win this game.
Kirkland’s Prediction
Call me crazy or say that I have drank way too much of the Orange and Blue Kool Aid, but as I examine this game, I see an Illinois team with a lot to prove, that seems to be on the right trajectory, going into a game. They match a Wisconsin team that so far has not lived up to their fullest potential, which has led to some shock and confusion. I know it is hard to go get a win in Camp Randall, but Illinois has physically and mentally put themselves in a position to win against this Wisconsin team, and I believe they will do so.
My Prediction: Illinois 27- Wisconsin 20
